JFK predicts 50 million dead, part II

In Kennedy’s day, the 1960 census pop estimate was 179 million.
By 2000, it was 281 million.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Census

Thus, Kennedy’s prediction was short by 70 million, assuming he was working off of some population model based on the recent census.

Row v. Wade was 1973, with abortions picking up the following year.

The number of pre-Roe abortions is a world of shadowy estimates emerging from mystery and political agendae. but let’s take a lower number from Guttmacher:
http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/tgr/06/1/gr060108.pdf

Figuring 200,000 per year from 1960 through 1972 would be 12 * 200,000 = 2,400,000.

Many sites have estimates for abortions per year beginning in 1973. This one gives Guttmacher’s numbers:
http://www.nrlc.org/abortion/facts/abortionstats.html
Adding up 1973 and following year up to 2000 brings a total of 39,430,750.

Adding that to the 2,400,000 noted above gives about 42,000,000 Americans that would have been alive merely by not aborting them.

That would bring the year 2000 U.S. population much closer to JFK’s 350 million figure: it would bring it to 323 million.

Of those aborted from 1960 onward, those who would have been born from 1960 to 1980 would all be 20 years old or older.

That would be about 12 million people who would have reached a typical time for beginning to have their own children.

Half, or 6 million, would be female, ages 20 to 40.
The birth rate is about 65 per 1,000 adult women [http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_07.pdf ], so this would be 65,000 per million women, equalling an estimate of 390,000.

Add another 2 million births {per this CDC data:

ht tp://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_07.pdf ],

expected from the aborted females who would have reached ages 15 – 19 in this time frame from 1960 to 2000.

That would be a United States population of just about 326 million in Year 2000.

Making a prophetic guesstimate from a day when the population was not yet 200 million, JFK was only off by 10 percent. If only so many were not aborted.

He had some good demographers.

But they were not good at predicting Supreme Court privacy thinking in toto, even as Griswold was imminently headed for the consideration of JFK’s pro-life appointee, Byron White..

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