Hurricanes Cause Short-Term Memory Lapse

Well, I have not jotted anything about the anthropomorphic global warming lately. Well, I have not jotted much at all lately.

No worries – the world has not changed much, Politically nor environmentally.

But I will throw this out there: we liberals suffer fro mwhat you might call “confirmatory bias.” You can show us all of the contrary evidence you want, but we will take one little bit of info and use it to support the beliefs that are scripted for us by marxists who tell us they are our fellow Democratic americans.

Like anthropogenic global warming. Including this detail: if a hurricane falls in the forest,…wait – if a hurricane destroys property, or causes anything to get wet, is it proff of AGW? Yes.

The memo I got tells me: this only works in one direction: if a hurricane is coming, or if a forecast for hurricane season declares that it will be a wild season (due to AGW), then I am supposed to hold on tighter to my AGW pledge, despite the snickering from my normal neighbors (the ones who actually mind their kids, edge their lawns, get high only on weekends, and go to church).

BUT!!    If hurricane season is slow, or normal, we do not have to worry about the fact that the slow season undercuts our AGW beliefs because – here is the secret — feel free to share! I will not be upset or charge anyone with plagiarism!!— WE DON’T LOOK BACK! Progress means forward. Do not stop to review how off-track your dire predictions were! Throw the next round out there!

And so, NOAA has. [how ironic – not Allana Morrisette ironic but REALLy ironic – NOAA sounds like Noah, most known for weathering God’s wrath – oh tat reminds me – I will have to post a link about how the scientists are now declaring that Noah was right!!]

NOAA has thrown out the hurricane prediction for this season.

How many of Jean Dixons’ predictions for 2009 came true? Who cares? We only care about 2010!!!

Ouch, LastDem! That hurts! The Jean Dixon analogy!!

Well, I am gonna throw it down on ya.

Look, I thought about posting the numbers. I will later. suffice it to say: DISASTER! RUN! ANTHROPOTOMAC GLOBAL WARMING!

OK, I just caught my breath. that was scary. I even donated to my local PBS and heated up some Celestial Seasonings Tea, I was so scared.

A commentor at a AGW-skeptic blog was clever enough to come up with this idea: how have the NOAh predictions played out over these last few years?

Well, we have no idear. We have Short-Term Memory Lapse. Probably caused by (you guessed it) AGW.

Here is the data, noted as a comment in this post

“timetochooseagain says:
May 18, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Let’s look at how NOAA’s forecasts have done. You can find the forecasts are conveniently in tables on the wiki pages representing each Atlantic Hurricane Season. I’ll show May, since the “forecast” done in August is rather disingenuous since the season can be well underway by that point. Actual numbers are in parentheses.
Named Storms
2009 9-14 (9) barely right
2008 12-16 (16) barely right
2007 13-17 (15) Spot on
2006 13-16 (10) FLAT WRONG
2005 12-15 (28) FLAT WRONG
2004 12-15 (15) barely right
2003 11-15 (16) WRONG
2002 9-13 (12) fair

In my view, it looks as though most of NOAA’s forecasts were fairly decent. The last 8 seasons have seen only three in which the number of named storms was outside of the predicted range. Two thousand five was especially bad, probably because nobody expected such an active season historically-because your technology is allowing us to detect them better.

But how about their predictions for just hurricanes?

2009 4-7 (3) wrong
2008 6-9 (8) fair
2007 7-10 (6) wrong
2006 8-10 (5) FLAT WRONG
2005 7-9 (15) FLAT WRONG
2004 6-8 (9) wrong
2003 6-9 (7) fair
2002 6-8 (4) WRONG

Interestingly, here their performance looks much worse. Only TWICE in the last 8 seasons has the actual number of hurricanes fallen within the range of predictions by NOAA in May.”

So, we take them seriously? What? Do we have no memory? Hurricanes cause short-term memory lapse.

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