Monthly Archives: May 2012

Canoe to the North Pole! Or not.

Canoe to the North Pole! Or not.

As a person who values actual data, and knows how much issues can serve as mere rhetorical points for gaining or sustaining political ground, I held off a long time on making up my mind on whether the manmade global warming was a big deal or not.

Then, a few years ago, I decided to dig in and figure out for myself what the deal was. Pretty quickly, I saw statistical tricks being done, and figured out that global temps were easily within the range of normal variability. No panic.

The rhetoric was ramping up then. This was maybe 2007.

One point of rhetoric was that the ice coverage in the arctic was notably decreasing. A couple years ago, I figured this out and began learning abt this and following the issue.

There was the arctic, plus people kept salivating about how the western antarctic ice shelf was losing ice, too.

So, I considered the scenario and asked myself what I would want to know. I would want to know: from bottom up, first things first: how much ice is there at each pole, anyway, and what does normal variation look like, and what is going on now.

This systematic, independent thinking could be off-track, but it was independent, not fed by any person or group. I came up with those ideas on my own. If I am not smart enough to reason through the global warming thing, I just am not. But at least I would be guided by common sense and a respect for data, rather than be pushed and pulled by partisans.

Well, it turns out that one modest part of the antarctic was losing ice over recent years, but the arctic overall was gaining ice. And, the antarctic has way more ice than the arctic – almost twice as much.

So, in my common-sense thinking, I figured out that polar ice caps were gaining ice. If the planet is warming, and Al Gore is telling me that the loss of arctic ice is a symptom of this, then overall polar ice could serve as an indicator, aslo, and that indicator seems to trump a smaller scope indicator, and that indicator says there is no global warming meltdown.

So, I decided that yet again Al Gore was off-track. [I did not swing my chad for him mostly for that fake Black accent he used when talking to those tennessee farm hands Daddy bought in New Orleans].

Despite the polar ice being OK, the arctic sea ice happened to be in a down-swing. Nothing in nature really stays steady except change. So, the rhetoric has focused on arctic ice. The National Snow and Ice Data Center displays the running rate, with 1979-2000 data, plus two standard deviations (the wiggle room range for about two thirds of those year, indicating fairly normal behavior) as a background for reference.

They show that here: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

With recent years tracking notably below the 2 standard deviation baseline reference range, the global warming panic was full on. People were planning to canoe or kayak to the north pole, and so on.

But a month ago, toward the end of April, things went the wrong way for Al Gore: we had an inconvenient truth playing out in front of the eyes of many warmists and deniers. Like Jan Berry on Dead Man’s Curve, the current arctic sea ice swerved straight for normal – AAGGHH! And, it continued, out of control, on a perilous course seeming like it would  – gasp – cross the average line!!!

That would be quite the loss to the warmists.

But no worries! The snow and ice center just HAPPENED to modify the way they smoothed the data just a day or two before the lines would have crossed. So, now, for posterity, the lines nearly touch, but don’t. [The line is not day-by-day, but the avg of the recent few days so as to take the irrelevant jaggedness out of the line.]

That indicator still remains as evidence that we are seeing natural variability, not a death spiral for the arctic as has been claimed.

Well, now mid-May 2012, conditions look favorable for that ‘current’ line to cross the 1979-2000 average AGAIN! It will be really tough, for rhetorical purposes, to go and change again the way the current day/recent average is calculated just to again avoid Dead MAn’s Curve.

The arctic ice data lags a day or two, but arcitc temp data (as well as a lot of other data) are available much more close to the moment. Here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

THat curve has average temp for each day up in the arctic. Green is avg, and red is current. So on May 16, the current is about 4 degrees kelvin below average. This is one of the several main factors that affect how much polar ice there is. If you look at this temp, you can tell it contributes to the day by day wiggles of arctic sea ice coverage.

Here is a more close-to-realtime arctic sea ice measure – it has current year in black, plus recent years –

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

So, you don’t have the 1979-2000 average and range like you have at the US snow and Ice center, and this is watched less popularly, but here you can see the sea ice extent vary with daily temp more clearly. The data point on this DMI chart today will be seen on the US Snow and Ice Data Center graph tomorrow.

And today, it looks like sea ice has not decreased at all, along that downward slope to summer.

A couple more days of relatively slow ice loss and the 2012 line will cross the 1979-2000 average line. Despite a valiant attempt to avoid this, the rhetorical mental landmark will be violated.

Of course, when the sevreal-year decrease trend was operating, it was all due to global warming. Now, with this return to more normal levels, it will be all due to ocean currents, wind, and changes in soot falling on the arctic. Duh – now apply that to those few years of decline, too.

Nope, global warming rhetoric is a one-way street.

 

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Canoe to the North Pole! Or not.

Canoe to the North Pole! Or not.

As a person who values actual data, and knows how much issues can serve as mere rhetorical points for gaining or sustaining political ground, I held off a long time on making up my mind on whether the manmade global warming was a big deal or not.

Then, a few years ago, I decided to dig in and figure out for myself what the deal was. Pretty quickly, I saw statistical tricks being done, and figured out that global temps were easily within the range of normal variability. No panic.

The rhetoric was ramping up then. This was maybe 2007.

One point of rhetoric was that the ice coverage in the arctic was notably decreasing. A couple years ago, I figured this out and began learning abt this and following the issue.

There was the arctic, plus people kept salivating about how the western antarctic ice shelf was losing ice, too.

So, I considered the scenario and asked myself what I would want to know. I would want to know: from bottom up, first things first: how much ice is there at each pole, anyway, and what does normal variation look like, and what is going on now.

This systematic, independent thinking could be off-track, but it was independent, not fed by any person or group. I came up with those ideas on my own. If I am not smart enough to reason through the global warming thing, I just am not. But at least I would be guided by common sense and a respect for data, rather than be pushed and pulled by partisans.

Well, it turns out that one modest part of the antarctic was losing ice over recent years, but the arctic overall was gaining ice. And, the antarctic has way more ice than the arctic – almost twice as much.

So, in my common-sense thinking, I figured out that polar ice caps were gaining ice. If the planet is warming, and Al Gore is telling me that the loss of arctic ice is a symptom of this, then overall polar ice could serve as an indicator, aslo, and that indicator seems to trump a smaller scope indicator, and that indicator says there is no global warming meltdown.

So, I decided that yet again Al Gore was off-track. [I did not swing my chad for him mostly for that fake Black accent he used when talking to those tennessee farm hands Daddy bought in New Orleans].

Despite the polar ice being OK, the arctic sea ice happened to be in a down-swing. Nothing in nature really stays steady except change. So, the rhetoric has focused on arctic ice. The National Snow and Ice Data Center displays the running rate, with 1979-2000 data, plus two standard deviations (the wiggle room range for about two thirds of those year, indicating fairly normal behavior) as a background for reference.

They show that here: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

With recent years tracking notably below the 2 standard deviation baseline reference range, the global warming panic was full on. People were planning to canoe or kayak to the north pole, and so on.

But a month ago, toward the end of April, things went the wrong way for Al Gore: we had an inconvenient truth playing out in front of the eyes of many warmists and deniers. Like Jan Berry on Dead Man’s Curve, the current arctic sea ice swerved straight for normal – AAGGHH! And, it continued, out of control, on a perilous course seeming like it would  – gasp – cross the average line!!!

That would be quite the loss to the warmists.

But no worries! The snow and ice center just HAPPENED to modify the way they smoothed the data just a day or two before the lines would have crossed. So, now, for posterity, the lines nearly touch, but don’t. [The line is not day-by-day, but the avg of the recent few days so as to take the irrelevant jaggedness out of the line.]

That indicator still remains as evidence that we are seeing natural variability, not a death spiral for the arctic as has been claimed.

Well, now mid-May 2012, conditions look favorable for that ‘current’ line to cross the 1979-2000 average AGAIN! It will be really tough, for rhetorical purposes, to go and change again the way the current day/recent average is calculated just to again avoid Dead MAn’s Curve.

The arctic ice data lags a day or two, but arcitc temp data (as well as a lot of other data) are available much more close to the moment. Here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

THat curve has average temp for each day up in the arctic. Green is avg, and red is current. So on May 16, the current is about 4 degrees kelvin below average. This is one of the several main factors that affect how much polar ice there is. If you look at this temp, you can tell it contributes to the day by day wiggles of arctic sea ice coverage.

Here is a more close-to-realtime arctic sea ice measure – it has current year in black, plus recent years –

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

So, you don’t have the 1979-2000 average and range like you have at the US snow and Ice center, and this is watched less popularly, but here you can see the sea ice extent vary with daily temp more clearly. The data point on this DMI chart today will be seen on the US Snow and Ice Data Center graph tomorrow.

And today, it looks like sea ice has not decreased at all, along that downward slope to summer.

A couple more days of relatively slow ice loss and the 2012 line will cross the 1979-2000 average line. Despite a valiant attempt to avoid this, the rhetorical mental landmark will be violated.

Of course, when the sevreal-year decrease trend was operating, it was all due to global warming. Now, with this return to more normal levels, it will be all due to ocean currents, wind, and changes in soot falling on the arctic. Duh – now apply that to those few years of decline, too.

Nope, global warming rhetoric is a one-way street.

 

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2012 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions Imminent

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions Imminent

Each May, the NOAA makes their forecast of that year’s hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Novrmber 30. In the recent few years, they have made well-publicized dire apocalyptic predictions, seeing as how they are part of the Manmade Global Warming Scam Machine (i.e., part of govt). They will predict number of tropical storms, number of hurricanes, and number of major hurricanes.

This makes for great sport. As the season progresses, you get to see their totalitarian dreams get spanked by reality, in the form of Mother Nature.

The global warming panic meisters claim to be quite attuned to Mother Nature, but when she does not comply, they are not attuned but turn a deaf ear. They do publish updates as the season progresses, but these carry much less fanfare and hurrah.

And, they NEVER note that weather MODELS were just plain wrong.

Here is the offical place where their predictions for 2012 will be posted, in the next few days:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml

They have been spanked so bad in the recent few years that they will most likely go easy this year. The other orgs that also predict each Atlantic hurricane season have noted that this will LIKELY be a relatively calm season. this is so likely that NOAA cannot even claim disaster in advance so as to panic everyone and influence us to give Al Gore the keys, with asteriscs and updates tempering the panic later in the season.

A leading “problem” is that the Atlantic is jut a lot COOLER then usual.

What? COOLER? Is not the GLOBAL WARMING PANIC and the FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY, with their POISON GAS CO2 supposed to be HEATING the world’s oceans?!!??!!??

Well, yes. But just like global land temps, sea temps have simply not been complying. They are not at any Tipper Point whatsoever.

Here is where to look at the Atlantic sea surface temperatures in order to see the hot water that produces the hurricanes-

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/global_anomaly_oper0.png

You are welcome.

What to look at is the path from OK how do I make this easy: from the most western point of the continent of Africa toward Hispanola. These hot air masses come from east to west across Africa, then stumble on out across the Atlantic, and pick up water vapor. The more warm the water, the more readily it gets pulled up out of the Atlantic into the clouds. This is what spawns Atlantic hurricanes.

Currently, you should see a lot of green: that is water that s ‘below average’ temp – leading to less-drastic hurricane likelihood. Yellow to red is warmer than usual – suggesting potential for more hurricanes, and more intense hurricanes.

Keep clicking that website to follow the Atlantic Hurricane Season as the summer progresses. When a tropical storm does form, you will see a relative cool ‘wake’ as it passes – this reduces the likelihood or power for another tropical storm soon after, until the water mixes a bit.

This is truth, and evidence. They (the marxists) will throw PANIC and apocalypse upon you, but if you keep your head cool, you will be able to separate Karl Marx’s fantasy from reality.

There are many ways to watch the apocalyptic revolutionaries get spanked by Mother Nature. Following the Atlantic Hurricane Season is a great one. It has been so obvious that I don’t think they will even try to get by with the strategy of throwing out a disaster-scenario forecast to be mellowed later. I think that people like me, many websites, and the other prediction houses, have seen that this one gets a lot of attention, and to claim PANIC!! will simply add to the Boy-Cried-Wolf phenomenon.

I will try to post a lot more on watching the Atlantic hurricane season. There are a handful of websites that are very helpful. Helpful in helping you figure out that “WE” are not simply well-intentioned “liberals,” but that “we” are elitist totalitarians and marxists, and are trying to get control over EVERYONE in any way we can, including health care, parenting, energy consumption, and so on.

The weather is not complying with their fantasies. They are getting more desperate as days move along, and the dire predictions, such as hurricane “climate change” emerge to be carrying on at quite normal rates, PROVING them wrong.

Atlantic hurricanes are not getting more wild and extreme.

You can plot the trends from the data HERE

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#Atlantic_basin_ACE

Years 2004 and 2005 really played into their hands, as the variation in the arctic ice cap did for  couple years – before reversing and dispelling the PANIC for those of us who have not yet drunk the Kool-Aid.

I predict you will see how true it is in this calm Atlantic hurricane season.

 

 

 

 

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